Following up on my previous post, here are updated trends in Coronavirus cases in Maryland (USA), the state I live in. I am writing a second post because the Maryland Department of Health (MDH) updated its dashboard with way more data than before (more on this below). Before continuing, please note that the same disclaimer as in my previous post applies here (in short: read the CDC and MDH websites for official information).
The new type of data that the MDH released is: the total number of hospitalizations and releases, more granular age categories and the number of cases by sex. And on March 28, we saw the return of the number of negative tests!
Here are the plots that I will try to update daily (last update: March 29, 2020):
On March 28, MDH reintroduced the total number of negative cases (11,516). Having the total number of cases done is important because it allows to understand better the disease dynamic than just the number of positive cases …
Suppose you have 992 positive cases (like on March 28) but no total number of cases tested. It’s a lot – or maybe it’s not much, who knows? It depends on how many were tested. Up to that day, imagine that only 1,000 people were tested – this becomes a lot of positive cases because 99% of people tested turned out to be positive. Now, MDH said they actually tested 12,508 people – this means that 7.9% of people tested turn out to be positive. Given the few tests available, testing is reserved for people who are believed to be at risk (more or less ; read the MDH testing FAQ here). So less than 10% of people tested (thought to be at risk) turn out to be actually infected. That’s good!
End of March, the MDH also released more granular data on the age categories of the people tested positive. Age groups 30-39 and 40-49 have the most cases. Therefore, mostly adults are impacted, probably among people working (who are not or can’t do social distancing). Given hospitalization and death rates are lower in these age groups than in older adults (most hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths are occurred among adults aged ≥65 years with the highest percentage of severe outcomes among persons aged ≥85 years, according to the March 26 CDC paper), we’ll hopefully see less dreadful cases in adults than in older adults.
To be continued …
All the data and scripts are on a Github repository if you want to play.